World is facing a demographic clash

Fertility rates around the world are dropping at the same time that populations are aging. Stuart Varney, Fox News business analyst, said this will result in a demographic clash.

Varney was the featured speaker at General Session II at the 2013 Cattle Industry Convention in Tampa, Fla.
“Throughout the developed world fertility rates are falling very sharply,” Varney said.

The magic number in fertility studies and that number is 2.1. Countries need a fertility rate of 2.1 to keep their population stable. Varney said in Italy, Greece and Russia the fertility rate is 1.2. In Germany, Spain and Japan the rate is 1.3.
“In all of Europe it is 1.8 or less,” Varney said. “There is not a single European country with replacement level fertility.”
The picture is much the same in the Far East. Japan has a fertility rate of 1.3. The region that includes Hong Kong has fertility rate of .9.

Varney said 45 countries around the world are losing population. This is unique in human history.
As populations are falling they are also aging. Life expectancy is up in most developed countries except for Russia. In the U.S. the average female can expect to live 79 years and the average male will reach 78.

When Social Security started in this country the average 65 years old male could expect to live another 14 months. Today the average 65-year-old can expect to live another 14 years.

“Demographic shift means a whole lot more people who are living on a pension supplied by an ever shrinking group of people,” Varney said. “This is a demographic clash. This all applies to Social Security, Welfare, and Medicare. It applies particularly to states whose budgets busting due to pension obligations.”

The headline of the future is demographics. It is our destiny and it is a huge problem, according to Varney


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Categories: Convention News


Senior Field Editor, High Plains/Midwest Ag Journal.


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